Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 18.352164 20.920634 23.685870 26.880215 30.464372 34.357543 38.902325
2025-01-19 13.700744 17.001000 20.830069 25.585218 31.315205 37.979499 46.299000
2025-01-26 12.055495 15.784416 20.319146 26.209885 33.626800 42.619576 54.309303
2025-02-02 10.824022 14.863383 19.983894 26.903190 35.954058 47.329105 62.637233
2025-02-09 9.557384 13.692891 19.131931 26.741555 37.033418 50.378173 68.883384
2025-02-16 8.448576 12.590230 18.225870 26.366255 37.716694 52.856780 74.427356
2025-02-23 7.685378 11.871863 17.747509 26.483120 39.002003 56.129120 81.125761
2025-03-02 7.089210 11.323991 17.440744 26.780762 40.507556 59.727829 88.402338
2025-03-09 6.508006 10.734960 17.010469 26.839256 41.633310 62.805738 95.050847
2025-03-16 5.916383 10.069416 16.401933 26.566475 42.221475 65.100413 100.637624
2025-03-23 5.516430 9.666185 16.152270 26.802017 43.554524 68.511779 107.980486
2025-03-30 5.296887 9.533275 16.306655 27.660636 45.867294 73.466515 117.827857
2025-04-06 4.844203 8.980453 15.761181 27.388723 46.429947 75.846406 123.970348
2025-04-13 4.224809 8.085192 14.585393 26.005218 45.128087 75.268590 125.502652
2025-04-20 4.040044 7.936571 14.643343 26.661671 47.155454 79.985926 135.532311
2025-04-27 3.876508 7.810467 14.726640 27.358262 49.275610 84.935541 146.139214
2025-05-04 3.590421 7.430319 14.333694 27.196646 49.925585 87.509949 152.985692
2025-05-11 3.298383 7.011721 13.838457 26.814676 50.162186 89.393447 158.751752
2025-05-18 3.102795 6.762845 13.632645 26.933634 51.267702 92.763554 167.121921
2025-05-25 2.947091 6.579233 13.533218 27.235811 52.704709 96.746125 176.678649
2025-06-01 2.772928 6.342134 13.313605 27.295244 53.698193 99.995628 185.096989
2025-06-08 2.573243 6.033494 12.931855 27.018214 54.051356 102.128614 191.644748
2025-06-15 2.447133 5.870214 12.823538 27.257421 55.367028 106.004226 201.390662